Fellow SOOs,

I completed a local CG lightning study here last year, incorporating 420 t-storm cells. The study yielded an apparent probabilistic relationship between CG lightning occurrence and storm intensity as given by 40dBZ echo height, with at least a 1 radar-scan period of lead time. If this finding is accurate, it means an algorithm could be developed to produce CG lightning probabilities, scan-by-scan, based on 40dBZ echo heights. The technique had some failure cases...primarily isolated "out of the blue" anvil strikes, and isolated strikes in the stratiform region of MCSs. What is not known if if these failures are associated with upstream 40dBZ cores, in which graupel is advected through anvil/stratiform region to produce the isolated strikes, or if they're a result of a different process. Another problem, particularly for pulse storms, is that CG lightning probabilities often peaked prior to lightning detection...thus probabilities were decreasing just as lightning was detected. Finally, it is not known if this technique works in all areas of the country, and in all convective regimes.

I Was hoping to work with NSSL to produce an algorithm to study CG lightning this year, but so far the funding for that (about $50,000) has not materialized. Thus, on to Plan B. Would like to organize a CG lightning field study of WES archived cases to try to confirm the findings of our local study. Would like to have a number of field office forecasters, in different areas of the country, review archived WES cases (need to have radar data, NLDN output, and area soundings/metars archived), document t-storm cells, and send results to me to combine with the results of others. As a goal, would like to have individual output sent to me prior to * August 1st * , so I can spend free time in the summer combining results, then forwarding results to participants.

If you have someone in your office who is interested in a project, and particularly interested in helping me with this, please have him/her email me. I'll supply more specific instructions to them so all participants are on the same page. I've attached a document describing our study and results, and attached the 2 animated GIFs (gif 1, gif 2)described in paper.

I know there are other studies involving total lightning, utilizing models to predict lightning, etc. At the moment, I'm trying to keep this simple, and focused on CG lightning. This could serve as a starting point, from which we could evolve to total lightning.

Thanks for your assistance...

Pete Wolf, SOO NWS Jacksonville FL